Greece 2026: Key Takeaways from Deloitte's Economic & Investment Playbook

The Economic & Investment Playbook 2026 examines the Greek economy, what draws investors, the sectors with the most potential and the incentives on offer. Below are the points we think matter most for investors, in our own words. The full report is free to download from Deloitte's website (linked at the end).

The economy is growing steadily and debt keeps falling. Greece is growing faster than the euro-area average, with growth coming from consumer spending, tourism, exports and investment backed by EU recovery funds. GDP growth is forecast at 2.1% for both 2024 and 2025, easing to 1.8% in 2026, while unemployment falls from 10.1% in 2024 to a projected 8.3% in 2026. Inflation — 3.0% in 2025 — is expected to pick up to 3.7%, and public debt declines from 154.2% of GDP in 2024 to 146.1% in 2025.

Foreign direct investment hit a record of more than €11 billion in 2025, up from €7.0 billion in 2024, with real estate and financial services attracting the biggest shares of foreign money in recent years. Greece also holds an investment-grade credit rating from all the major agencies, which it regained in 2023, and the banking sector has cleaned up its balance sheets: bad loans fell to 3.6% of all loans by mid-2025, the lowest level since Greece joined the euro.

Why investors are paying attention. The report points to four main draws: location, a stronger stock market, more deal-making and better financing conditions. Greece sits between Europe, the Middle East and Africa, with major ports, a large shipping fleet and growing energy links — and Deloitte argues that regional instability could actually help Greece, as a stable EU and NATO member.

The Athens Composite Index rose about 44% in 2025, its fifth straight year of gains, led by bank stocks. Euronext bought a 74.2% stake in the Athens exchange in November 2025, plugging it into Europe's largest exchange network, and foreign investors now own a record 69% of the market's value. Deal-making is accelerating too: mergers and acquisitions climbed to 156 in 2025, with energy, real estate, hospitality and financial services the busiest sectors. Borrowing is cheaper — the gap between Greek and German 10-year bond yields narrowed from 156 to 76 basis points between 2023 and 2025, and average rates on new bank loans fell from 6.1% to 4.6%.

Our note: since the report was written, FTSE Russell's upgrade of Greece to developed-market status took effect on 21 September 2026, and MSCI plans to follow in May 2027. Both moves open Greek stocks to funds that only buy developed markets.

The sectors Deloitte highlights cover nine areas. Tourism offers luxury resorts, branded residences, marinas and yachting, wellness and cultural tourism, and city-break hotels in Athens and Thessaloniki. Real estate spans hotels, urban regeneration, modern offices, warehouses and logistics — in short supply — plus student and senior housing. Energy covers LNG and gas infrastructure, battery storage, grid upgrades and interconnectors, and water management.

Technology centres on data centres and cloud, digital public services, AI and startups, while business services point to software, analytics and customer-service hubs for multinationals alongside maritime and logistics services. Life sciences offer contract drug manufacturing, clinical trials, biotech and medical devices. Defence and security opportunities include co-production with foreign partners, drones, cybersecurity and maritime surveillance, while culture and creative industries cover film and TV production, gaming, animation and cultural tourism, and agriculture offers processing and packaging of olive oil, wine and dairy, agri-tech and cold-chain logistics.

For property investors, the report's message is that the best prospects are shifting beyond holiday homes. Logistics warehouses, energy-efficient renovations and year-round hotels are where it sees demand outpacing supply.

The risks are real. The report is upbeat, but it is clear that Greece still has weaknesses investors should price in. Inflation is rising faster than in the euro area, driven by services and food, and Deloitte expects it to reach 3.7% in 2026. Despite strong growth, output and income per person remain below EU averages, and construction, agriculture, professional services and retail are struggling to find skilled workers as the population ages.

The EU recovery fund ends in August 2026 — projects not finished in time may lose that money. Outside shocks matter too: tensions in the Middle East could push up energy costs and disrupt tourism, and US tariffs have hurt demand indirectly. Drought and ageing water infrastructure are growing concerns, especially on the islands.

On incentives, Greece offers a 22% flat corporate tax rate plus a set of tax breaks aimed at businesses that invest. R&D spending carries a tax deduction of 100% on top of research costs, rising to 150–200% for spending with startups and universities, or for smaller firms that invest heavily in research. Workers who relocate to Greece for work receive a 50% income tax break for seven years, and income from patented products is tax-free for three years.

Small and medium-sized firms get extra deductions and faster depreciation for energy-saving and digital investments, while large projects can win Strategic Investments status with fast-track licensing, tax incentives and possible grants. The Development Law opens new state aid rounds twice a year.

Bottom line: Deloitte sees Greece as a credible, stable place to invest, with the opportunity set widening beyond tourism and property. The growth story is real — but it depends on Greece keeping up reforms and tackling inflation, skills gaps and the end of EU recovery funding.